ppi printed 1.3%. bitcoin briefly broke $80k.

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morning. yesterday we flagged september ppi. it printed hot. bitcoin briefly lost $80k, asia bought the dip in chip stocks, and fed chair warsh spoke in bangkok without tipping october.

ppi rose 1.3% in september — the hottest month since march 2022. bls says final-demand producer prices jumped 1.3% m/m (after +0.5% in august), the largest advance since +1.7% in march 2022. unadjusted, the index is up 6.3% over 12 months, the biggest year-over-year rise since december 2022. consensus into the print was roughly +0.6% m/m. (bls)

energy did most of the damage: final-demand energy +10.8%, goods +2.6%, services +0.8%. gasoline alone jumped 20.3%. core-ish final demand less foods, energy, and trade services still rose 0.5% m/m and 5.0% y/y. (bls)

crypto got the flush. bitcoin briefly traded under $80,000 for the first time in over a month (low near ~$79,800 / ~$79,711), then tore back toward ~$82,500 within about two hours. coinglass via decrypt: ~$948m liquidated across 177,440 traders in 24 hours, longs ~90.6%; eth ~$282m, btc a little over $200m. (coindesk, decrypt)

asia bought the equity dip too. kospi jumped nearly 3%; samsung and sk hynix each gained more than 2% after thursday's rout (the same names that led yesterday's −7.6% kospi / ai-debt scare). (coindesk)

the takeaway: after hot cpi and hotter ppi, the rate question is still the trade. bitcoin defended $80k on the first test. the next test is whether etf buyers and the fed path agree.

fed chair warsh: ai will be "very bumpy" — and he won't tip october. speaking with the imf's kristalina georgieva in bangkok, warsh refused forward guidance: "i don't prejudge meetings." he called recent global policy a "synchronous tightening" with "no free riders," and said he expects ai to make adopting economies more productive over time while warning the near-term path will be "very bumpy" and jobs effects are still uncertain. goldman wrote that, alongside other fomc comments, the speech points to an october pause (they still expect a december hike). cme fedwatch showed ~72% odds of a hold at the oct 27–28 meeting after the remarks. (cnbc)

still open from issue #002: the ftc's civil investigative demands to openai and anthropic (cbs confirmed the agency sent them). no major company response beyond openai saying it will "engage constructively." (cbs news)

spot etfs: btc barely green, eth still bleeding. after wednesday's −$261.4m btc etf day, thursday's net was about +$5.1m (ibit +~$16.8m, grayscale mini −~$7.6m) — basically flat. spot eth etfs: about −$60m. the only u.s. zec etf lost ~$15m even as zec jumped ~11% on the bounce. (coindesk live, cryptoticker / farside)

zec led the rebound; glassnode's $80k line held on first touch. zec was up ~8–11% into friday asia/us hours while majors added 1–3%. nexo's iliya kalchev told decrypt bitcoin is ~2% below the average cost of u.s. spot etf holders (~$82,300) — so reclaiming that band is the first real rebound test. (coindesk, decrypt)

as of ~13:10 kyiv time, oct 16 (coingecko):

fed oct 27–28 — and whether $82.3k etf cost basis gets reclaimed. warsh bought an october pause narrative without promising one. hike odds cooled; december is still where most of the tight path sits. for crypto, sustained positive etf flow + a daily close back through the low-$82ks would say the $80k flush was a stop-hunt, not a regime change.

still on the board: zcash nu7 decision oct 20 (75s→25s blocks, nov 5 target). (coindesk)

see you tomorrow. — gweiwire

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